The first is my bad beat of the evening, AhKh vs. Th9h:
While my hand isn't dominating the villain's hand, it's still quite powerful being two overcards in the same suit, so I'm shutting out a possible flush for him. Roughly 64%-36%, as indicated by the picture above taken from a poker odds calculator. I commented last night that this move was definitely +EV off the top of my head, but the math proves it:
Stacks: Villain (4500), Me (6850), blinds 200/400
Pot: 4500 + 200 + 400 = 5100
So, if I go all-in and everyone else folds, I'm playing for villain's stack so I stand to win it plus the blinds, thus being the 5100 in the pot. If I lose, I'm down 4500 as I didn't put any blinds or antes in the pot. ICM tells us that this situation has a positive expected value:
EV = (0.64) * t5100 + (-0.36) * t4500 = t1.644
On the long run, I win 1644 chips on average with this move. Definitely positive EV, even though ICM tells us that, had I eliminated the villain, the equity he lost would be divided among the remaining players and wouldn't come all to me. We'd all be nearer the money, not just me. I'd just win a little bit more equity than everyone else.
The second situation is right after this hand when I shove 5BB with Qd9d. As I said earlier on, I was ready to go all-in with basically any two cards. It's interesting to note at this point that any random two cards will beat a top hand roughly 1/3 of the time. Add to that the fact that the probability your opponent holds an overpair is 10% and you see how justified my any-two shove here would be. I end up getting called by Ah8h and here's how we shape up to see the flop:
We're racing and I got lucky on the turn, dodging a flush draw on the flop, which made it 85%-25% before the turn. Nothing really interesting here, other than the fact that it allowed me to stay in the tournament.
Finally, we analyze the hand that sent me home. Villain open shoved around 10BB from early position and he had been quiet for a while, even folding his BB to previous action so I knew he had to be strong. I was praying for AJ, which would be the best I could hope for, but he ended up flipping AdQd, so we were off to the races:
A slight edge for me, but the flop was awful and I was virtually drawing dead by then. I think it would be very difficult for me to fold in this spot, given our stack sizes but had I been in the vicinity of 15BB and I'd definitely lean towards folding, after putting my opponent on a premium hand range. Again, let's look at ICM for my expectation on this spot:
Stacks: Villain (8000), Me (6000), blinds 400/800
Pot: 6000 + 400 + 800 = 7200
EV = 0.54 * t7200 + (-0.46) * t6000 = t1128
This means I'd only have -EV had I been against QQ+, which makes this a good move in the long run, as my opponent would rarely have such a high pocket pair in this spot. It's true it sent me home, and I'd prefer to be the one open shoving instead of calling a shove, but then again I wouldn't gain any equity by folding, as the blinds would come up and put me in a very difficult position. Only a great run of cards would save me then, so I might as well gamble, like I did here.
Some lessons learned and I'm definitely looking forward to playing my next tournament.
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