World Series of Bubbling

I've stolen the title from a tweet Barry Greenstein just made and I guess it fits my poker game tonight.

Last Sunday played the last tournament of a season we got going here in Evora and made it to the season's final table, to be played 10-handed in a few weeks. Looking forward to that one, since it's basically a deep-stacked sit 'n go and I guess those are my home turf. I don't think I'm a favorite, but I do think I have a shot at winning that thing, provided the Poker Gods give me a break and stop laying the bad beats down on me. I wanted to log a few hands from that one, but it was absolutely crazy, an rollercoaster all night that defied all theory and probabilities. So, let's just be done with it and be mentally prepared for the final table in two and a half weeks.

So tonight it was a two-table tournament, in a place I use to play sometimes, nothing more than a home game but a competitive one at that. Bad beats abound but I do respect a couple of players there and enjoy playing pots with them. Tonight I bubbled when I had everything to get every chip on the table, but again destiny denied me that pleasure. I do believe I played well, except for one key hand early on, but what can you do.

In this post I'm going to analyze a few key hands...

Hand #1 - "The Bad Read"

Setup: This is very early in the tournament, blinds 50/100, I have my starting stack of 5000 chips, give or take. Villain in the CO is a strong, experienced player, whom I respect a lot.

I have 99 on the BB and I raise pre-flop to 300, receiving only one call from the CO. We see the flop heads up and it comes 5 7 Q rainbow. Perhaps I should have check on the BB, effectively set mining but the more aggressive image I'm looking for made me take the raising line. Being the pre-flop raiser, sucks to be playing OOP with a queen on the flop, but a continuation bet is mandatory here so I fire a 450 bullet on this very dry flop. Villain thinks for a few seconds, claims I don't have a Q and cold-calls. At this point, with no obvious draws on the board, I don't think he has a queen, but a 7 or 5 is possible.

The turn is another 7 which makes it less likely for him to have one in his hand. Then again, it's a possible holding, given his reluctant flop call. It's important to underline that I'm playing against a good player which makes the post-flop play a lot more complex. Against a weak player, I'd be quite more comfortable, as they usually play much more fit-or-fold and that reflects in the way they bet. What I'm trying to say is that against a good player in this spot I have a lot more implicit fold equity as I'm able to represent some hands, something which would go way over the head of a weak villain.

There's basically two different lines I could take here. If I check, I'm not able to represent much as this opponent knows I'm unlikely to slow play a set of 7 in this spot. Checking would basically mean giving up the hand, as I'd have trouble calling a strong bet with one card to come. So I decide to represent pocket fives, or even a 7, betting what I hoped would look like a value bet, 550 into a 1200 pot, a slight underbet. After slight deliberation, my opponent calls. The river is an ace and with the line I took, I cannot back down now, because if I check, I open the door for a strong river bluff from my opponent, which I can't reasonably call. The only thing I can do is maintain my line and fire a third desperate bullet, as my pocket pair can beat very few hands. I bet another 800 chips and my opponent tanks for a bit but calls. I show my 99 and he shows a 7, for a set, taking the pot.

My read was wrong at all levels and his flop call made a middle pair his most likely holding. The 7 on the turn should have slowed me down a lot, but instead I went in denial and fired every bullet I could, not believing the harsh truth. The river didn't help, and the outcome was disastrous. With this hand I lost nearly 2000 chips, more than a third of initial stack.

After that initial setback I was able to get back on my feet, chipping up to around 6000 chips after some really lousy playing from a weak opponent. He gave me odds all the way to the river, I kept paying and hit my top pair by the river. Lucky me, but really disgraceful from him. Couldn't really win more pots after that but I cruised to the final table anyway, with around 5000 in chips. Blinds were already at 300/600, so I needed to double up soon. I shove QTo, get called by 77, a Q pops up on the flop and no more help to my opponent on the turn and river. I double up to about 10k chips.

Some time later, I'm against with around 10BB, blinds go up to 400/800, UTG limps and I shove AcKs from UTG+1. All fold to the limper, who calls with A6o! Flop immediately brings a 6, but justice was replaced when 4 spades hit the felt and I'm saved by a rivered flush. Another double up, getting me to about 15k chips and close to the chip lead.

A few hands later I have KK in the hijack, raise to 3900 with blinds 500/1000 and everyone folds. I show my cowboys face up, as I'm now chip leader and stealing some blinds is definitely in my plans for the next few hands. The very next hand I have... KK again! And this is the key hand for me in this tourney.

I have two black kings in the CO, pop it up to 4800 to discourage most calls as I'm not looking forward to play a multi-way pot. The button thinks and cold calls leaving about 7000 chips behind, effectively putting almost half his stack in the middle. The SB instally goes all-in for about 3000 more and it takes me all of two seconds to re-raise it all-in. The initial call came from whom I perceive as a weak player, so I don't put him on AA, thus I shove to discourage him and going heads up with the short stacked SB. To my dismay, he makes a crying call, putting the rest of chips forward. I'm NOT happy to play a 3-way pot with KK, but I'm encouraged when I see the button flipping AQo (!) and the SB showing AKs. Two aces left in the deck. Flop brings nothing relevant, but the turn is an ace and the river is... a queen. Absolute tragedy strikes, as the bigger stack comes from behind and takes the entire pot, almost tripling up, eliminating the SB in the process and leaving me crippled with about 7k chips.

I could probably have pushed all-in before the flop and we know the ace would hit anyway, yet I would lose less as only the short stacked SB probably would have called. But then again, it doesn't make much sense, as my raise (almost 5BB) was already strong enough to discourage non-premium hands from calling. I think I just got really unlucky in this hand.

From here on I'm only looking for a hand to shove my meager 4BB (t4275) stack, after the blinds pass through me once and I wake up with AdQd. I push and get called by the now mega chip leader, with... T8o. An 8 hits the turn and nothing else helps my hand, and I bubble. Sick.

Not much to be learned tonight, except for that initial mistake. Other than that, just quickly forget this bout of bad luck and move on to the next tournament...